Forecast for Saturday, November 16

Issued: Wednesday, November 13 Launch Weather Officer: Joel Tumbiolo, 45th Weather Squadron Synoptic Discussion: "Currently, cold front that moved through this morning has usherd in windy and colder conditions. Skies will clear out later today. High pressure will build in behind the front resulting in benign weather, albeit cooler and breezy through Friday. "Latest forecast guidance models indicate a second storm system will be developing in the vicinity of Florida on Saturday. Exact location and timing of low pressure center is unclear right now as the different forecast models show a different solution. "Wind direction will depend on exact location of low pressure center. Expect changes in forecast wind direction as this system develops. If this system does in fact verify it will be an impact on launch day." Clouds: Scattered at 3,000 feet with 3/8ths sky coverage and tops at 8,000 feet; Broken at 12,000 feet with 6/8ths sky coverage and tops at 18,000 feet; and Overcast at 25,000 feet with 8/8ths sky coverage and tops at 27,000 feet Visibility: 5 miles Launch Pad Winds: Easterly (090 degrees) becoming Westerly (270 degrees) 10 gusting to 15 knots Temperature: 70 to 72 degrees F Relative Humidity: 97 percent Weather: Mostly Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity Probability of Violating Weather Constraints: 60 percent Concerns: Anvil Cloud Rule, Thick Cloud Rule, Cumulus Cloud Rule, flight through precipitation and wind 24- and 48-hour delay forecasts: No launch attempts are scheduled

Delta 4 weather rules

Wind criteria

Mobile Service Tower rollback: (depends on direction) - constraint as low as 22 knots as measured at 102 feet - as high as 39 knots as measured at 102 feet Fueling/Vehicle Exposure: - 35 knots as measured at 102 feet Launch: - 18 knots as measured at 102 feet (from 262-042 degrees) - 22 knots as measured at 102 feet (from 042-087 degrees) - 24 knots as measured at 102 feet (from 087-197 degrees) - 21 knots as measured at 102 feet (from 197-262 degrees)

Natural and triggered lightning launch commit criteria

1. Lightning: - Do not launch for 30 minutes after any type of lightning occurs in a thunderstorm if the flight path will carry the vehicle within 10 nautical miles of that thunderstorm - Do not launch for 30 minutes after any type of lightning occurs within 10 nautical miles of the flight path unless: 1. The cloud that produced the lightning is not within 10 nautical miles of the flight path; and 2. There is at least one working field mill within 5 nautical miles of each such lightning flash; and 3. The absolute values of all electric field measurements at the surface within 5 nautical miles of the flight path and at the mill(s) specified in (2) above have been less than 1000 V/m for 15 minutes. 2. Cumulus Clouds: - Do not launch if the flight path will carry the vehicle within 10 nautical miles of any cumulus cloud with its cloud top higher than the -20 deg C level - Do not launch if the flight path will carry the vehicle within 5 nautical miles of any cumulus cloud with its cloud top higher than the -10 deg C level - Do not launch if the flight path will carry the vehicle through any cumulus cloud with its cloud top higher than the -5 deg C level - Do not launch if the flight path will carry the vehicle through any cumulus cloud with its cloud top between the +5 deg C and -5 deg C levels unless: 1. The cloud is not producing precipitation; and 2. The horizontal distance from the center of the cloud top to at least one working field mill is less than 2 NM; and 3. All electric field measurements at the surface within 5 nautical miles of the flight path and at the mill(s) specified in (2) above have been between -100 V/m and +500 V/m for 15 minutes. If mill 33 or 25 is exhibiting a negative offset that (1) is characteristic of powerlines and (2) preceded the occurrence of any clouds that might produce electric fields at the surface, the field at these sites must have been between - 500 V/m and + 500 V/m for 15 minutes. 3. Anvil Clouds: Attached Anvils: - Do not launch if the flight path will carry the vehicle through nontransparent parts of attached anvil clouds - Do not launch if the flight path will carry the vehicle within 5 nautical miles of nontransparent parts of attached anvil clouds for the first 3 hours after the time of the last lightning discharge that occurs in the parent cloud or anvil cloud. - Do not launch if the flight path will carry the vehicle within 10 nautical miles of nontransparent parts of attached anvil clouds for the first 30 minutes after the time of the last lightning discharge that occurs in the parent cloud or anvil cloud Detached Anvils: - Do not launch if the flight path will carry the vehicle through nontransparent parts of a detached anvil cloud for the first 3 hours after the time that the anvil cloud is observed to have detached from the parent cloud - Do not launch if the flight path will carry the vehicle through nontransparent parts of a detached anvil cloud for the first 43 hours after the time of the last lightning discharge that occurs in the detached anvil cloud - Do not launch if the flight path will carry the vehicle within 5 nautical miles of nontransparent parts of a detached anvil cloud for the first 3 hours after the time of the last lightning discharge that occurs in the parent cloud or anvil cloud before detachment or in the detached anvil cloud after detachment unless: (a) There is at least one working field mill within 5 nautical miles of the detached anvil cloud; and (b) The absolute values of all electric field measurements at the surface within 5 nautical miles of the flight path and at the mill(s) specified in (a) above have been less than 1000 V/m for 15 minutes; and (c) The maximum radar return from any part of the detached anvil cloud within 5 nautical miles of the flight path has been less than 10 dBZ for 15 minutes. - Do not launch if the flight path will carry the vehicle within 10 nautical miles of nontransparent parts of a detached anvil cloud for the first 30 minutes after the time of the last lightning discharge that occurs in the parent cloud or anvil cloud before detachment or in the detached anvil cloud after detachment. 4. Debris Clouds: - Do not launch if the flight path will carry the vehicle through any nontransparent parts of a debris cloud during the 3-hour period defined below - Do not launch if the flight path will carry the vehicle within 5 nautical miles of any nontransparent parts of a debris cloud during the 3-hour period defined below unless: 1. There is at least one working field mill within 5 nautical miles of the debris cloud; and 2. The absolute values of all electric field measurements at the surface within 5 nautical miles of the flight path and at the mill(s) specified in (1) above have been less than 1000 V/m for 15 minutes; and 3. The maximum radar return from any part of the debris cloud within 5 nautical miles of the flight path has been less than 10 dBZ for 15 minutes. The 3-hour period in above begins at the time when the debris cloud is observed to have detached from the parent cloud or when the debris cloud is observed to have formed from the decay of the parent cloud top to below the altitude of the -10 deg C level. The 3-hour period begins anew at the time of any lightning discharge that occurs in the debris cloud. 5. Disturbed Weather: - Do not launch if the flight path will carry the vehicle through any nontransparent clouds that are associated with a weather disturbance having clouds that extend to altitudes at or above the 0 deg C level and contain moderate or greater precipitation or a radar bright band or other evidence of melting precipitation within 5 nautical miles of the flight path. 6. Thick Cloud Layers: - Do not launch if the flight path will carry the vehicle through nontransparent parts of a cloud layer that is 1. Greater than 4,500 ft thick and any part of the cloud layer along the flight path is located between the 0 deg C and the -20 deg C levels; or 2. Connected to a cloud layer that, within 5 nautical miles of the flight path, is greater than 4,500 ft thick and has any part located between the 0 deg C and the -20 deg C levels; unless the cloud layer is a cirriform cloud that has never been associated with convective clouds, is located entirely at temperatures of -15 deg C or colder, and shows no evidence of containing liquid water (e.g. aircraft icing). 7. Smoke Plumes: - Do not launch if the flight path will carry the vehicle through any cumulus cloud that has developed from a smoke plume while the cloud is attached to the smoke plume, or for the first 60 minutes after the cumulus cloud is observed to have detached from the smoke plume 8. Surface Electric Fields: - Do not launch for 15 minutes after the absolute value of any electric field measurement at the surface within 5 nautical miles of the flight path has been greater than 1500 V/m - Do not launch for 15 minutes after the absolute value of any electric field measurement at the surface within 5 nautical miles of the flight path has been greater than 1000 V/m unless: 1. All clouds within 10 nautical miles of the flight path are transparent; or 2. All nontransparent clouds within 10 nautical miles of the flight path have cloud tops below the +5 deg C level and have not been part of convective clouds with cloud tops above the -10 deg C level within the last 3 hours. 9. Electric Fields Aloft: - Criteria 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8(b) need not be applied if, during the 15 minutes prior to launch time, the instantaneous electric field aloft, throughout the volume of air expected to be along the flight path, does not exceed Ec, where Ec is shown as a function of altitude 10. Triboelectrification: - Do not launch if a vehicle has not been treated for surface electrification and the flight path will go through any clouds above the -10 deg C level up to the altitude at which the vehicle's velocity exceeds 3000 ft/sec