Forecast for Monday, August 4

Issued: Friday, August 1 Launch Weather Officer: Joel Tumbiolo, 45th Weather Squadron Synoptic Discussion: "No significant changes in the overall pattern are expected the next several days. Any changes will be small scale and minor and too difficult to forecast with any high degree of confidence. The upper level low pressure center and associated trough over the eastern half of the U.S. will remain in place. This will act in keeping the surface high pressure ridge axis over, or south of the area for the next several days. Light south-southwest steering flow will result in afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms concentrating over interior and eastern sections of Florida. Thunderstorms will develop along the east and west coast sea breezes. Thunderstorm outflow boundaries will trigger further development. All activity will move towards the north-northeast. "Main concerns on launch day will be lightning and cloud cover associated with the showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity. Grounds winds will also be a concern." Clouds: Broken at 3,000 feet with 5/8ths sky coverage and tops at 10,000 feet; Broken at 12,000 feet with 5/8ths sky coverage and tops at 20,000 feet; Overcast at 25,000 feet with 8/8ths sky coverage and tops at 28,000 feet Visibility: 7 miles Launch Pad Winds: Southeasterly from 160 degrees at 10 gusting to 15 knots Temperature: 80 to 82 degrees F Relative Humidity: 80 percent Weather: Showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity Probability of Violating Weather Constraints: 60 percent Concerns: Lightning within 10 nautical miles, Anvil Cloud Rule, Debris Cloud Rule, ground winds

24- and 48-hour Delay Forecasts

Tuesday's Probability of Violating Constraints: 60 percent Concerns: Lightning within 10 nautical miles, Anvil Cloud Rule, Debris Cloud Rule, ground winds Wednesday's Probability of Violating Constraints: 60 percent Concerns: Lightning within 10 nautical miles, Anvil Cloud Rule, Debris Cloud Rule, ground winds