Forecast for Thursday, July 17

Issued: Thursday, July 17 Launch Weather Officer: Jim Sardonia, 45th Weather Squadron Synoptic Discussion: "There are several weather concerns this afternoon, however conditions are expected to become favorable at some point during the 100-minute launch window. Clear skies this morning will allow for rapid heating of the surface and widespread convection over the Florida peninsula this afternoon. Rainshowers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the east coast seabreeze and move to the north. Some of these storms may move through Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and produce lightning within 5 nautical miles of SLC 41 prior to tanking. Most of the activity is expected to diminish in the late afternoon hours prior to the opening of the launch window. Winds in the lower levels will be from the southeast creating a chance of coastal rainshowers all day. "The main concerns for Launch Day will be the chance of enhanced Cumulus clouds due to coastal rainshowers and Thunderstorm Anvil Clouds within 10 nautical miles of SLC 41. "Conditions worsen in the event of a 24 and 48-hour delay as the upper-level winds switch to a westerly component increasing the chance of Anvil clouds overhead in the late afternoon hours of Friday and Saturday." Clouds: Scattered Cumulus at 3,000 feet with 2/8ths sky coverage and tops at 8,000 feet; Broken Cirrus at 25,000 feet with 5/8ths sky coverage and tops at 27,000 feet Visibility: 7 miles or better Launch Pad Winds: Southeasterly from 120-140 degrees at 12 gusting to 18 knots (as measured at 230 feet) Temperature: 80 to 82 degrees F Relative Humidity: 75 percent Weather: Scattered coastal rainshowers Solar Activity: Low-moderate Probability of Violating Weather Constraints: 40 percent Concerns: Enhanced Cumulus Clouds within 10 nautical miles, Chance of Anvil Clouds within 10 nautical miles

24- and 48-hour Delay Forecasts

Friday's Probability of Violating Constraints: 60 percent Concerns: Chance of Anvil Clouds and Enhanced Cumulus Clouds within 10 nautical miles Saturday's Probability of Violating Constraints: 60 percent Concerns: Chance of Anvil Clouds and Enhanced Cumulus Clouds within 10 nautical miles