With one month left before NASA takes the new Ares 1 rocket on an early test run, a senior official says he is "pretty confident" engineers will be allowed to launch the booster despite swirling questions about the program's future.

The Ares 1-X rocket stands inside the Vehicle Assembly Building. Credit: NASA-KSC

In an interview Friday, the manager of the next-generation Constellation program said his underlings are continuing work on the Ares 1 and Ares 5 rockets, the new Orion spaceship, and early concepts for systems to be used on the surface of the moon.

The Constellation program was wonkishly called the program-of-record during public hearings held by the Augustine Commission this summer. The Obama administration established the board to review plans for the future of human spaceflight and deliver several new alternatives to policymakers.

Experts said the Constellation program-of-record, as currently funded, would not be able to meet its goal of returning humans to the moon within its schedule projections. The Government Accountability Office weighed in Friday with a report saying NASA has not developed a "sound business case" for the program, detailing a list of cost, schedule and technical uncertainties.

"We're implementing the plan that the agency and national leadership have initiated. If they wish to change that plan, we'll change and we'll adapt," said Jeff Hanley, Constellation program manager.

The most immediate milestone for the program is next month's test launch of a stripped-down version of the Ares 1 rocket engineers are designing to carry astronauts into space beginning in 2015 or 2016.

Hanley said he expects the Oct. 27 launch, one month from Sunday, will go ahead as planned.

"I'm pretty confident just because of the real engineering value that this test vehicle represents and the investment that's been made," Hanley said. "I'm pretty confident we'll probably launch it, regardless."

NASA officials are defending the planned launch, saying most of the test's $350 million cost has already been spent and the two-minute flight will yield heaps of data, no matter what rocket the agency ultimately chooses to replace the space shuttle.

"What are the uncertainties that engineers face in designing a launch vehicle? It's understanding the environments and the loads that any rocket will see," Hanley said. "So being able to pin those down more precisely and model them more prescisely is of huge value, no matter what path we take. It will be valuable to Ares 1, it will be valuable to Ares 5, it will be valuable to any rocket system."

The Ares 1-X test flight will not include a full-up first stage, a functioning upper stage, or a working Orion space capsule.

But the 327-foot-tall rocket is a full-scale replica of the Ares 1 rocket. The launcher even includes a mock launch abort system, steel ballast places to simulate fuel tanks, and shaped features taking the place of thrusters, windows, and other equipment.

"The vehicle is basically the world's biggest wind tunnel model. We're going to take a vehicle the scale and shape of a real Ares 1 and fly it through it through the real environments that the Ares 1 will see," Hanley said.

NASA last week announced the Ares 1-X launch was moving up four days from its previous date of Oct. 31.

"I have a lot of confidence that we can make (Oct. 27) if the hardware continues to be good to us and we continue to close all our papework," said Jon Cowart, the Ares 1-X deputy mission manager.

Cowart said six weeks of integrated hardware testing since the rocket was stacked last month has gone more smoothly than expected.

Officials were also concerned about potential conflicts on the Air Force's Eastern Range in late October and early November.

"Our best bet looked to be bringing it back to the 27th," Cowart said.

Teams plan a Launch Vehicle Readiness Test this week, the last major powered test of the booster inside the Vehicle Assembly Building.

Vehicle closeouts will also begin this week in advance of the rocket's move to launch pad 39B around Oct. 19.

Workers at the pad should finish up modifications to the structure this week with final testing of the Vehicle Stabilization System, a claw-like arm that will hold the rocket in place against high winds.

A readiness review is scheduled for Oct. 8 to verify the ground systems are ready for flight, Cowart said.